Tom Isbister @IsbisterTom & Will Rosenblatt @rozenwill
Welcome to theBRKDWN’s weekend MLB betting guide. Here, you can find the matchups for each series, as well as betting advice based on finding value plays compared to the market odds. Come back on Friday for the weekend picks.
All lines are provided by Bet365 & FiveThirtyEight. Time is in Eastern Standard.
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Last Week: 2-3, Season 32-18
Nationals ML, Loss
Yankees ML, Loss
Indians ML, Loss
Athletics ML, Win
White Sox ML, Win
|Yankees @ Phillies||Orioles @ Rays||Pirates @ Brewers|
|Cardinals @ Cubs||Blue Jays @ Red Sox||Rangers @ Dodgers|
|Rockies @ Reds||White Sox @ Tigers||Angels @ Diamondbacks|
|Padres @ Mets||Braves @ Marlins||Royals @ Athletics|
|Mariners @ Indians||Astros @ Twins||Yankees @ Phillies|
Angels -145 @ Diamondbacks (Friday, 9:40pm)
I almost feel bad for the Diamondbacks. Not even a couple of weeks ago, they broke out of their 13 game losing streak. Well, now they’re on a seven-game losing streak. The team has won just five of their last 30 games. It’s been brutal. There’s been some bad luck in there. Arizona is 2-12 in one-run games. They’re 4-26 vs teams with a winning record but 16-17 against teams with a losing one. They’re bad but not as bad as it appears.
But, today will not be the day they end their losing skid. The Angels come to town having won seven of 10 and Shohei Ohtani on the mound. The Angels have had a weird year. They looked good the first couple of weeks of the season before hitting a rough patch that was made even worse when Mike Trout went down. They are just two games under .500 despite playing what Baseball References rates as the toughest schedule. I think they pick up their fourth win in a row here behind a strong Ohtani start against a bottom-dwelling Diamondbacks team.
Astros -155 @ Twins (Friday, 8:10pm)
The Twins are a team coming back from the dead, slowly, still in last in the AL Central though. The Astros, are looking like the real deal, like the 2017 and 2018 teams, not last year’s version. Their rotation has been one of the best in baseball, and Urquidy has been a large part of that. Matt Shoemaker for the Twins has been, well, less than average. 2-7 with a 7.28 ERA. If Urquidy can shut down the boom or bust Twins offense, then the Astros hitters should be able to make quick work of Shoemaker. -155 is oddly low for the Astros here considering how outmatched the Twins are in every category and the difference in arms going head to head. I’m slamming this line hard.
Brewers + Dodgers Parlay (Saturday)
This weekend’s slate of games aren’t the best for betting, lots of close games or lopsided ones with no value. What happens when you still need to make picks but none have value? Combine them. That leads me to the Brewers and Dodgers. Friday night could also be a good parlay with Woodruff and Kershaw. But Saturday provides slightly better odds, around the -105 mark as oppose to -135 for Friday.
So for the matchups themselves. The Brewers face the Pirates, who are so bad they forgot to touch first base. With Corbin Burns on the mound against the winless Chad Kuhl, that should be an easy win for the Brewers. The other part of this parlay is Trevor Bauer at home against the Rangers. Texas benefits the most in the league from wrong umpire calls, which explains their inflated record… at 24-39. Looking at all the potential parlays for this weekend, I think this one is the best shot at hitting. Fade the Pirates.
Sunday Night Special
Cardinals @ Cubs
This will be the most simple, shortest write-up I have done all year. I don’t know who is pitching for the Cubs, but I know Carlos Martinez is pitching for the Cardinals. For the sake of brevity, I suggest you just don’t bet on the team Carlos Martinez is playing for. Enjoy your baseball weekend.
Some Other Notes and Injury Updates
- Byron Buxton went deep twice on Thursday night while on a rehab assignment. That’s a promising sign for the Twins’ OF who was playing at a MVP level before he went down last month.
- Jacob DeGrom, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Brandon Woodruff, and Blake Snell all get the ball on Friday in what should be a good night for those of you who enjoy pitching.
- Yasmani Grandal currently has a batting average of .160 with a 27% strikeout rate but an OPS+ of 135. No player in the live-ball era has had an average below .200 and an OPS+ over 130.
- Yuli Gurriel and Adam Frazier are currently the only players who have totaled over 100 bases while striking out less than 12% of the time.
- After being some of the worst offenses in the league in April and May, the Orioles and Tigers both sit top three in the MLB in slugging percentage in the month of June.