By: Will Rosenblatt @rozenwill
Welcome to theBRKDWN’s midweek MLB betting guide. Here, you can find the matchups for each series, as well as betting advice based on finding value plays compared to the market odds. Come back on Friday for the weekend picks.
All lines are provided by Bet365 & FiveThirtyEight. Time is in Eastern Standard.
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|Mets @ Orioles||Yankees @ Twins||Indians @ Cardinals|
|Dodgers @ Pirates||Blue Jays @ White Sox||Astros @ Red Sox|
|Braves @ Phillies||Giants @ Rangers||Royals @ Angels|
|Nationals @ Rays||Rockies @ Marlins||DBacks @ Athletics|
|Mariners @ Tigers||Brewers @ Reds||Cubs @ Padres|
It’s a good day for pitching on Tuesday. We have a few aces taking the mound as well as a handful of guys that could end up at the all star game next month. 24 of the 30 teams in baseball had off days yesterday, meaning everyone should be well rested. Let’s just jump right in on what should be a fun day of baseball.
Indians @ Cardinals (Tuesday Night)
At the moment, Cleveland sits at -160 tonight with Shane Bieber going. This line should be closer to -200. The Indians offense has been one of the ten best in baseball this month and they are facing the Cardinals’ Carlos Martinez. Martinez has had an interesting career arc. He was once a guy who was on track to be a future Cy Young before a slew of injuries started to catch up with him. He has looked okay this year at times but he might be on his last legs as a starter in this league. He’s been one of the worst starters in baseball this year and has the worst xFIP of anyone pitching today. For Cleveland, Shane Bieber has looked really good his last two times out. The Cardinals won’t have enough on offense to make up for the pitching mismatch in this game. I like Cleveland here.
Mets @ Orioles (Tuesday Night)
Baltimore has been about as bad as people expected them to be. We could go on and on about all the stats they are close to the bottom of the league in, including the worst record in the AL, but that would be a waste of time since you already get the point. The Orioles are bad. That’s why this may be the first time I pick them all year, and it may even be the last. But betting is about having fun and this should be fun.
This may sound funny or out of place considering I just spent a whole paragraph telling you how bad the Orioles are, but believe it or not, they have been one of the best, if not the best, offense in baseball this month. Their .965 OPS in the month of June is far and away the best in baseball. The two best hitters in the majors this month have been Cedric Mullins III and Ryan Mountcastle, who are both OPS-ing over 1.600 in that span. The Mets are giving the ball to David Peterson, who didn’t even make it out of the first last time he took the mound. I like the value that rests with Baltimore here.
Dodgers and Athletics Parlay
I mentioned that it was a good day for pitching. Walker Buehler and Chris Bassitt were a big reason why. Both of these guys have been pitching great and should get to make the trip to Colorado come all star weekend. The Dodgers and Athletics face the Pirates and Diamondbacks today, respectively. There’s no such thing as a lock in baseball, but these are two of the best records in the MLB with their aces on the mound, facing two of the worst. Both teams should have their best bullpen arms available as well, given the off days yesterday. There’s not much reason in going against them, even with the moneyline as lopsided as it is.
If you don’t mind playing low risk, low reward money lines, go ahead and play both of these straight up along with the parlay. If you want a little more bang for your buck and don’t see any value in playing huge favorites, just stick to the parlay.
Braves @ Phillies
The Phillies, who have the second best offense in baseball this month, have Aaron Nola going for them against the Braves. The strategy of finding a team with a hot offense and a ace pitching is one I’m fond of and the Phillies fit that bill here.
White Sox, Marlins, and Astros
Once again, we circle back to good pitching. The listed teams here have Carlos Rodon, Pablo Lopez, and Framber Valdez pitching for them. I’m not sure I have an uber confident pick here considering the offenses these guys are facing are really good, like the Blue Jays or Red Sox, or are riding a hot streak like the Rockies. It’s still worth pointing out on the grounds that good pitching beats good hitting and in the case of Carlos Rodon and Pablo Lopez, they are pitching at home.
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