MLB 2021 Covering The Bases Weekly Betting Guide

Welcome to theBRKDWN’s weekly MLB betting guide. Here, you can find the matchups for each weekend series, as well as betting advice based on finding value plays compared to the market odds. Every Friday, you can come back for that weekend’s matchups and betting advice. 

All lines are provided by Bet365.

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Last Week: 2-2, Season 23-14

Marlins @ Dodgers, Loss
Red Sox vs. Angels, Win
Cubs @ Tigers, Loss
Padres @ Cardinals, Win

Weekend Matchups

Dodgers @ GiantsMets @ MarlinsTigers @ Royals
Orioles @ NationalsBrewers @ RedsCubs @ Cardinals
Red Sox @ PhilliesPirates @ BravesDiamondbacks @ Rockies
White Sox @ YankeesRays @ Blue JaysAthletics @ Angels
Twins @ IndiansAstros @ RangersMariners @ Padres

Betting Advice

Red Sox @ Phillies (Friday Night)

Aaron Nola is taking the ball for Philadelphia, and it’s always risky picking against an ace, especially at home, but I’m doing it here. The Red Sox have won two in a row and are seeing the ball well. The Phillies, on the other hand, are not. Nola has been good this year, but not perfect. He hasn’t been good his last two times out and has given up at least 3 earned runs in four of his last five starts. Martin Perez has been a serviceable starter for Boston this year, and with the Red Sox hitting the ball as they are, Boston should get the win here.

Dodgers @ Giants (Saturday)

These are two of the best teams in baseball thus far. It may only be May, but this is a rivalry and this is the first time in a few years where they’ve met, both teams being relevant. Both clubs are on winning streaks and have won eight of their last 10. This series has the potential to be entertaining.

The Dodgers will throw Walker Buehler on Saturday, while the Giants roll with a bullpen game. Buehler has pitched six innings in every start this year, only giving up more than two earned runs twice. Even more impressive, he’s only walked seven batters all year. In seven career starts vs the Giants, Buehler has allowed just a .591 OPS. I think the Giants are for real, but the Dodgers are the better team and will have the pitching edge on Saturday. I like the Dodgers to get the win here.

Yankees vs White Sox (Saturday Afternoon)

The Yankees seem to be finally putting it together, and with Cole on the mound, in the Bronx, it’s hard to go against them. The White Sox however have been quite good in a weak AL Central and lead the Yankees in every offensive statistical category, but home runs. Back in New York, with the short porch and Cole on the mound, there might finally be value in a Yankees ML against a stronger White Sox. I would be looking for Cole to dominate the White Sox hitters with strikeouts. And it will be especially hard for the White Sox if Abreu doesn’t play, even if he does, he won’t be 100%. This game just screams Yankees win all over it, best of luck.  

Astros @ Rangers (Saturday Afternoon)

Lance McCullers Jr. has been absolutely dominant under the Texas sun. The Astros and Rangers always play each other tough, but Houston is just the better team right now and deserves this pick. McCullers Jr. is sitting pretty with 1.12K’s per inning, which against a Rangers offense who is boom or bust, he should be able to neutralize them pretty well. The bats of the Astros are so much better than the Rangers, scoring a full 1.39 runs per game more, and winning the batting average race .273 to .235. I have a feeling this one might not be close, I would go the Astros the whole way, maybe even -1.5 if your feeling it. 

Sunday Night Special

Cardinals vs Cubs

Just like Will had said in the last betting guide, the Cardinals have had good Moneyline value this year. This is why last week, we correctly picked the Padres. This week at home to the Cubs, it’s time to flip back over to the Cards.

Both teams are fairly matched, which is why this series will be close, its a battle for top in the NL Central. The Cubs offense has a very slight advantage, but I think that gets nullified by the starters, and the game being in St.Louis. For this game, I like Adam Wainright more than I do Zach Davies. Although Wainwright has a losing record, his numbers are significantly better. The Cubs are also dealing with a fair bit of injuries, especially to their arms and in the outfield. I’d be looking at taking the Cardinals in this one. 

Some Other Notes and Injury Updates

  • Some hot offenses you might want to think about backing this weekend are the Rays, Astros, and Red Sox.
  • Some cold offenses you might want to fade include the Rockies, Rangers, Diamondbacks, and Mariners.
  • Marlins’ OF Corey Dickerson faces Marcus Stroman tonight. Dickerson is slugging .758 vs Stroman in 33 plate appearances. 
  • Mike Trout will be out 6-8 weeks with a calf strain; Jacob DeGrom made a rehab start on Thursday night and should be activated next week.
  • The Giants, Padres, and Dodgers have won a combined 14 games in a row. The three NL West teams own the three best records in the National League.
  • Jose Abreu is questionable for the start of the White Sox and Yankees series after a collision at home plate against the Royals. 

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