Memorial Tournament Best Bets

Mark Diana
Golf Analyst

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The PGA Tour is back in Dublin, Ohio for one of the best events of the season! The Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village, hosted by Jack Nicklaus, is a staple on the PGA Tour and an event that always draws an elite field. “Jack’s Place” is home to one of the toughest tests of golf all season and has seen top-tier winners in recent editions. Muirfield Village is a Par 72, which now measures over 7,500 yards. Following last year’s tournament, the course immediately underwent renovations. The changes have resulted in a course that is 150 yards longer, recontoured green complexes, narrower fairways, and modified greenside bunkers. This classical style course is a true second-shot course that will test every facet of the game. Strong iron play along with great touch Around-the-Green will be necessary this week. As with most Nicklaus courses, as golfers get closer to the pin, the hole becomes more challenging. Missed greens will result in tricky up-and-down situations that will find golfers scrambling to save par. 

Each week I will post some of my favorite bets of the week. I will focus on my two favorite outright bets, a couple of full tournament matchups, and a couple of top finishes bets! You can find my entire betting card on my Twitter account, @GolfBets101

Favorite Outrights

Keegan Bradley 50-1

Keegan Bradley is playing some of the best golf of his career right now. Dating back to last November, Bradley has made ten consecutive cuts which includes eight straight Top 30 Finishes. Bradley is peppering the top of leaderboards and giving himself opportunities on Sunday. The two most important stats in my model this week are Around-the-Green and Tee-to-Green. I am looking for golfers who can scramble to save par if they need to, but also have a strong approach game that opens the door to birdie opportunities. Over his last 32 rounds, Bradley has gained .54 strokes per round Around-the-Green, while also gaining 1.54 strokes per round Tee-to-Green. That is the exact blueprint I am looking for this week. At a really basic level, if you are looking for the player who has the best blend of Tee-to-Green and Around-the-Green it is Keegan Bradley

Cameron Smith 55-1

Cameron Smith is a short-game specialist who comes into this event in tremendous form, where he has recorded four Top 10 Finishes over his last eight starts! The 27-year-old Australian plays classical courses very well because of the overall completeness of his game. Smith will not find much trouble Off-the-Tee this week due to generous fairways which will allow him to capitalize on his strengths. The last five winners of this event have on average played the Par 5s -9.2 strokes under par. This means the majority of the scoring will be on the Par 5s, and Smith is the number one ranked player in Par 5 Birdies-or-Better Percentage. Smith’s scoring upside along with his touch Around-the-Green will result in a successful trip to Muirfield. 

Favorite Matchups

Hideki Matsuyama -118 vs Tony Finau

One of the best comparisons to Muirfield Village is Augusta National. Hideki claimed victory at Augusta back in April and is a former winner at Muirfield as well. Hideki plays great at courses where he is able to dial up his irons and where putting is not as much of a factor. Finau has been missing more cuts recently and just seems to be missing something from his game at the moment.

Patrick Reed -120 vs Scottie Scheffler

Reed dominates long, classical courses. While Reed is not a long hitter, he has found a great deal of success on longer courses this season. Reed’s three best finishes this season have been a win at Torrey Pines, T6 at Quail Hollow, and T8 at Augusta. I love Reed’s chances of contending this week which is why I am also targeting him in matchups.Scheffler is another player who tends to play at this style of course but this matchup is not necessarily a fade of Scheffler but more of a bet on Reed.

Shane Lowry -118 vs Kevin Streelman

Shane Lowry and Kevin Streelman have both been playing high-level golf. Streelman’s good golf might be coming to an end as I think he is on the backend of a run, whereas Lowry is just getting started. Lowry has been striking the ball well which is a good sign for a short-game grinder who is starting to find more consistency.

Favorite Finishing Bets

Byeong Hun An Top 40 +300

An has played this course seven times in his career with four Top 25 Finishes. Back in 2018, An lost to Bryson DeChambeau in a playoff. An’s success at this course is a good example of how Around-the-Green will be important. An is the fifth best Around-the-Green player on the entire PGA Tour, and with only 121 golfers in the field, finishing inside the Top 40 at these odds is a good value. 

Marc Leishman Top 40 +138

Leishman is a great sand player, and this course features some of the deepest bunkers on Tour. Leishman is a good player who is very streaky. Leishman’s weakest aspect of his game is his driver, and when he gains Off-the-Tee he usually performs well. With wide open fairways this week, I expect Leishman to avoid mistakes and find himself comfortably inside the Top 40.

Louis Oosthuizen Top 30 +110

Oosthuizen is a short-game wizard and has been one of the best putters on Tour this season. His short-game mastery should fit this course well and he has been finding himself in contention at recent events. Oosthuizen is a guy who I would consider in multiple markets this week and in DFS and I love his chances at finishing inside the Top 30.