John Deere Classic Best Bets

Mark Diana
Golf Analyst

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The PGA Tour is headed to Silvis, Illinois to TPC Deere Run for the John Deere Classic. With The Open Championship being one week away, the best players in the world have already made the trip across the pond and are playing in the Scottish Open. This leaves a very watered-down field in Illinois. In weak field events such as this one, the tournament is wide open. The name of the game this week will be scoring. Previous winners at this event have made a plethora of birdies and the winning score is likely to reach -20. 

TPC Deere Run is a Par 71 that measures 7,268 yards. As a Par 71 there are only three Par 5s on the course. However, as previously mentioned, scoring will be very easy this week. The last five winners of this event have combined to score a birdie or better on 25% of the Par 3s, 30.91% of the Par 4s, and 58.33% of the Par 5s. The fairways are wide and easy to hit which allows for all styles of golfers to contend. I will be mostly targeting golfers who have been successful in weak field birdie-fests. 

Each week I will post some of my favorite bets of the week. I will focus on my two favorite outright bets, a couple of full tournament matchups, and a couple of top finishes bets! You can find my entire betting card on my Twitter account, @GolfBets101

Favorite Outrights

Kevin Na 45-1

Kevin Na is a high upside player who is very volatile. In an outright bet, it doesn’t matter if the golfer finishes in second place or misses the cut, so it makes sense to target golfers who are very volatile. Na has won five times on the PGA Tour, and has won in four birdie-fests. Kevin Na has had winning scores of -19, -23, -21, and -23. The 37-year-old is an amazing Around-the-Green player and the last two winners of this event were the #1 ranked player in scrambling for the week that they won. With wide open fairways, Na’s poor driving is neutralized and I love this number for a proven winner in this weak field. 

Kramer Hickok 80-1

Kramer Hickok lost in an epic, marathon playoff against Harris English two weeks ago. He followed that performance up with a made cut last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Hickok is a very accurate player. He hits a lot of fairways, and gives himself looks at birdies. I am looking for golfers who will consistently have opportunities to score, and can avoid any mistakes. Over his last 24 rounds, in this field Hickok ranks: third in Good Drives Gained, sixth in GIRs Gained, and 27th in Birdies or Better Gained. 80-1 is a strong number for a player who has shown form in recent weeks and was very close to winning just two weeks ago. 

Matchups

Sungjae Im -118 vs Russell Henley

Sungjae Im has been one of the best putters on Tour this season, but his Iron play has been struggling. In recent weeks, Im has started to strike the ball a lot better and is starting to put together good performances. Im has the birdie upside to score really low and while Henley has been very consistent I just think Im will outpace him all week.

Zach Johnson -124 vs Ryan Moore

Zach Johnson is a horse for the course. He has won on this course and has seven Top 5 finishes at TPC Deere Run in his career. He loves this course because he can plot around the fairways and use his best weapon, his putter. Moore is another short hitter but he has been awful on Approach and Putting this season. Moore has played in only twelve events this season, and has not finished inside the Top 25 once. 

Hank Lebioda -110 vs Sebastian Munoz

This matchup is solely a current form play. Lebioda has been playing great golf with four Top 25s in his last six starts. Munoz has been struggling for most of this season, and while he has the birdie upside to contend this week, he makes too many bogeys. Over his last nine starts, Munoz has missed six cuts. This is a matchup that can cash on Friday.

Top Finishes

Charles Howell Top 40 +120

Howell is an experienced player who tends to play his best golf against weak fields on easy courses. Howell has played TPC Deere Run ten times in his career and he has made nine cuts while notching six Top 25 finishes. Howell has played very well at easy TPC courses. At TPC Summerlin, Howell has played sixteen times with eight Top 20 finishes. At TPC Twin Cities, Howell has played twice with a third place finish and 23rd place finish. 

Kyle Stanley Top 30 +150

Kyle Stanley is a high floor player. He makes a lot of cuts and plays very consistent golf. In recent weeks, Stanley has been hitting the ball very well. Over his last 24 rounds, in this field Stanley ranks: third in Approach, third in Opportunities Gained, tenth in GIRs Gained, and eleventh in Good Drives Gained. Stanley’s ball-striking should lead him to a good week and I fully expect a bigger week than just Top 30 from him.

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