The ultimate source for finding value in underdogs for the weekend football slate returns. Jordan handles the NFL, while Rex covers college. Last season was a profitable one playing the dogs as Rex went 5-6 for +3.80 units. Let’s see who missed breakfast.
Arkansas St. vs Kansas St. (-10.5) 9/9, Noon EST.
Kansas State will open their season on Saturday while Arkansas State is looking to bounce back after a loss to Memphis last week. This game was announced less than a month ago as a replacement on their current schedules. With neither program having the usual amount of prep time, K State could come out of the gates rusty. Plus, Arkansas State has been battle tested against a superior squad already, gaining valuable live reps. We saw how poor the offensive execution and tackling were last week to start the games. This leads to playing a 1H line rather than full game.
There is no position unit with a significant talent discrepancy between these two squads. The Red Wolves deploy a two quarterbacks system. Layne Hatcher was far more efficient and effective passing down the field but the rotation will continue into Week 2. Regardless, both are top 50 QBs in the nation. As long as Logan Bonner improves on taking care of the ball from Week 1, Arkansas State will be able to get into the red zone. Expect over 300 passing yards from the QB duo since the weakest unit on defense for K State are their defensive backs. Jonathan Adams Jr.only had six catches for 65 yards and I expect that to increase significantly.
After facing Brady White, a top-10 QB in the nation, Arkansas State can slow down Skylar Thompson. They were able to limit explosive passing plays other than allowing one in the 4th quarter. However, they’ll need to contain Thompson on the ground as he is not shy to use his legs to pick up yards. Force him to stay in the pocket and beat you with his accuracy. He is a game manager under center that doesn’t like to take chances, but his accuracy (59.6 percent) has come up short before.
I have to give credit to Chris Klieman and his ability to make adjustments in game. Therefore, I am taking the first half Arkansas State ML rather than the full game. Look for Kansas State to come out shaky and disconnected before some halftime adjustments to win a close game. My model has Kansas State as 8.5 point favorites.
Rex’s Pick: Arkansas St. 1H ML (+255).
If College Football means anything to you in any way, you absolutely need to be joining the movement with ExpandTheBoxscore.com. The most bang for your buck with the most stats you could find. The tool you should not be without! Sign up now with our code “theBRKDWN” and receive 10% off.