Jordan, Chris, and Rex are back for more underdogs. Coastal Carolina cashed for Rex last week while Jordan lost on a walk off field goal backing the Texans. Chris’s Longhorns came up short last week too. 

Rex’s Play

Maryland vs. Temple Sept 14, 12:00 p.m.

Line: Maryland (-270), Temple (+220)

Coming off a Week 2 bye, the Owls had extra time to prepare for this game. This line seems to be an overreaction to Maryland’s first two wins. The Terps rely on big plays to generate their offense which may come at a struggle against Temple. The strength of the Owls’ defense is their linebackers and secondary. They can contain Maryland’s explosiveness. On the flipside, Anthony Russo will be confident heading into this game. He looked sharp in Week 1 and threw 4 touchdowns. The offensive line is a strength, so expect him to have time in the pocket.

In last season’s meeting, the Owls won 35-14 but this seems to be a different Maryland team under Mike Locksley. A cause for concern is Josh Jackson. If Temple lets him get into a rhythm, he is a more dynamic passer than Maryland’s QB last season.  

According to SP+ Metrics, there is not much that separates Maryland (38) and Temple (44). My model has this game lined Maryland -1. 

The Pick: Temple (+220). If Temple’s defensive line can create havoc, they can win back to back games against Maryland. 

Jordan’s Play

Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans Sept 16, 1pm

Line: Indianapolis (+155), Tennessee (-175)

The Pick: Indianapolis (+155)

Am I the only one who remembers how good Indy was the past half of the season? With a spread of 3, this implies that the two teams are equal on a neutral field — is that really the case? As a big believer in roster construction – I think that it is not true. Sure, Jacoby Brissett is not the same player as Andrew Luck (who was at one point seen as an MVP favorite) but it is still the same team outside of the QB position. 

Coaching/decision making? This is a no brainer – edge goes to the Colts. The Titans promoted their TE Coach to Offensive Coordinator (because that is a common career path) and ran a very predictable offense versus Cleveland that was very tight-end heavy. If Baker wasn’t giving up the ball like lollipops at a Pediatrician’s office — the Titans would not have looked nearly as good. Yes, Tennessee has a top tier secondary but I do not feel Brissett/Frank Reich are going to be calling risky plays. I expect another big day out of Marlon Mack given the Colts offensive line prowess and look for Tennessee to start biting on the play-action passes giving Brissett the opportunity to link up with his friend Mr. Eugene Marquis Hilton for two TDs.

While not the biggest ‘dog — I think Indy can sneak this one out and surprise a league that has written them off after the untimely retirement of Andrew Luck.

Chris’s Play

North Carolina VS Wake Forest  Sept. 13, 6:00pm

Line: North Carolina (+135), Wake Forest (-155)

After going 2-9 a year ago the Tar Heels are coming into the 2019 season swinging. To start this season off they were matched with an SEC team, a lowly SEC team mind you, and against Miami, the team that was a hopeful to contend with Clemson for the ACC championship this year. The Tar Heels won both games. Both games they were supposed to lose and somehow they found a way to win. Wake Forest is coming off of a big win over Rice. They beat them by 20 when it was all said and done but the first quarter was a bit rocky for the Demon Deacons. They weren’t able to run the ball effectively against the Rice defense and then decided to air it out. 

This year UNC has rushed for an average of 167.5 yards per game. Wake Forest has given up an average of 123.5 yards per game. That number is skewed since Rice only had 67 yards of rushing offense. What will give Wake Forest issues is their passing defense. They gave up over 400 yards against Utah State and over 250 passing yards against Rice. Sam Howell is a true Freshman and he’s averaged almost 260 yards per game against legitimate defenses. UNC is a run first team but if Wake Forest can stop the run look for Howell to ball out and test the Wake Forest secondary. Wake Forest has only been tested by one good team this year and they barely beat them. UNC has gone toe to toe with some good teams and have pulled out two victories. Give me the dog who has pulled through with a Freshman QB and a hot streak. 

The Pick: North Carolina (+135) Mack has this team clicking and has already pulled some upsets. This team has something to prove and will show up to play once again. 

Season Recap: 

Rex: 1-1-0, +1.4u 

Jordan: 0-1-0, -1u

Chris: 0-1-0, -1u

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