We’ve got a busy 1pm slate today, folks. Using market data, efficiency statistics, coaching profiles and injuries – I create my own spread on the games, and from there use some additional information to handicap or play my preferred sides. My method has provided early success but while I am getting outputs on every game, I am not playing every matchup.
Last week was awesome, I somehow ended with a 9-5 win. After the early slate, I was 4-5 on the week but my projections finished the next five games with wins, including Monday Night Football. This brings my record to 36-24 (60%) on the year, with a handful of games that are not graded due to matching the actual point spread. I have started to pull in 2019 efficiency data, however I am still factoring 2018 slightly, and will continue to lessen its weight until we get to the 50% mark on the season.
Without further ado, let’s dig into some games from the slate.
Cardinals @ Bengals, 1pm
Line: Cinci -3
Projection: Cinci +1.5
Edge Favors: Cardinals
Yes, you read that right. I am on opposite sides of the market on this one. I have Cincinnati projected as a 1.5pt home dog, while the market has them priced at a 3pt home favorite. I am backing Arizona big, and taking them on the money line. This scenario has occurred four times in my projections previously as I outlined in this tweet…
Both Arizona and Cincinnati looked hapless in their respective games… However, it feels like Arizona has something to play for with a young QB, offense and head coach. Cincinnati… Are we sure they aren’t tanking? Did you see that offensive playcalling? Yikes.
My Play: Arizona ML +150
Notes: This is down anywhere to +125-+140… If you don’t have faith in Arizona to win with a rookie QB and rookie HC – take the spread.
Bills @ Titans, 1pm
Line: Titans -3 (juiced)
Projection: Titans -3
Edge Favors: Null
This is going to be an ugly, stinky, low scoring game. But seeing the screen painted +3 (EV) or +3 (+105) in favor of the Bills, does something for me. While I project it at exactly 3 points, I am enjoying the Bills this year. They neutralized the Patriots offense last week, and if you think the Titans have better success than the Patriots… well, just go ahead and close this article here. While I may play Buffalo (likely staking half a unit) they are certainly getting a look as a teaser leg.
My Play: Buffalo +9 (in a two or three leg six point teaser)
Notes: I follow the theories of Wong Teaser (fuck teasing through zero) and this will definitely be a play. If i see this Buffalo line get any more inflated (+108 or greater) I cannot hold back on taking them +3 also. Another opportunity with this game is an in-game play.
Vikings @ Giants, 1pm
Line: Giants +5.5
Projection Giants +7.5
Edge Favors: Vikings
It is TOUGH to lay 5.5 on the road with any team, much less a team going through internal turmoil with one of their star wide receivers… Will I be backing Minnesota? No. Will I back the frisky New York Giants, with Danny Dimes under center? Not a chance.
Well, who cares? This is a DFS/player prop goldmine… Dalvin Cook + over = Money. The Giants will have one of their four starting linebackers suited up for today’s game. Check your favorite data sources to see how they typically handle RBs out of the backfield on receptions and rushing and make your decision from there.
NOTE: This article will be updated shortly with projections and thoughts for the later slate. With only three games after 1pm today, and one MNF game – there is not a huge rush.
I have removed the projections for games I did not speak on, or do not plan to highlight. I left my afternoon edges in for those who will not have time to check back on my results.
Best of Luck…
Week 1: 9-5
Week 2: 7-9
Week 3: 11-5
Week 4: 9-5
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