By: Joe Brunk (@_JoeyB23)
I didn’t have the best weekend, going 1-4 for -2.45 units. I should have stuck with my gut on just taking the Espanyol moneyline. Dortmund and Dusseldorf didn’t convert on basically any of their chances, and it just wasn’t Leverkusen’s day at the pitch. VAR also had an interesting weekend leading to a few questionable calls across Europe, and not just in the games I bet.
I would make all the same bets I did, just not the right day for them. I am itching to put it behind me, and I have some spots I love for some mid-week action. I have some shorter write-ups for these games due to the quick turnaround, so let’s get into it. Again, I am only going half units for the Spanish games and full units in the Bundesliga. That may change after this week.
Monchengladbach vs Wolfsburg (12:30 EST 6/16)
My first bet this week is on the first Bundesliga game on Tuesday. We get Monchengladbach hosting Wolfsburg. Both teams here will be very motivated, and I expect both of them to be going for all three points. Monchengladbach wants to move into a UCL spot and Wolfsburg doesn’t want Hoffenheim, or any others catching them in sixth.
Wolfsburg will also want to put their last game behind them, after blowing a 2-0 lead against Freiburg. Monchengladbach probably also feels like they should have gotten more out of their 2-1 defeat against Bayern and will be out to make up for it. With both sides playing attacking football, the over is the bet here. If you think it’ll be a slow start, you could wait ten or fifteen minutes to live bet a total of 2.5 to ensure you get a full win and don’t push. I could see this being another game with a flurry of goals late to hit the over.
The Pick: O3 (+105) 1u; (via Bovada 6/16)
Freiburg vs Hertha Berlin (2:30pm EST 6/16)
In this matchup, we have two mid-table sides fighting for relevance in the race for a Europa League spot. Both teams are probably too far out but I think we will see both sides motivated to win this game. Hertha have been everyone’s darling since the beginning of the restart but have hit a rough stretch. Freiburg have flown a little under the radar (I had no idea they were eighth place) but are still within striking distance for sixth place.
Freiburg have only won one game since the restart and I don’t expect them to add to that total here. Hertha have lost two games on the bounce, but they have a chance here to right the ship. Their losses were against tough competition, Dortmund and Frankfurt. I just hope they don’t get a red card in the first half again. I could see them dominating this game, and at the very least, I don’t see Hertha losing.
The Pick: Hertha DNB (-115) 1u; (via Bovada 6/16)
Getafe vs Espanyol (1:30pm EST 6/16)
If you read my last article, I told you I was going to do it. Espanyol beat Alaves two-nil over the weekend and I am going back to well on this Espanyol side. The Alaves red card definitely helped them coast to a victory but Espanyol still played some good attacking football. Their plethora of January transfer splashes definitely helped out as well. Getafe will have an extra day of rest but it’s early enough into this restart that I don’t think it will have a huge effect. Getafe deserved more from their loss against Granada. They seemed to lose focus towards the end when they gave up two quick goals.
Both teams need these points bad to help achieve their goals. Getafe is fighting for a UCL spot and Espanyol are fighting for their La Liga lives. I expect Espanyol to keep clicking after the short turnaround and Getafe could be a little discouraged after blowing their lead in the last game. Given that, Espanyol will fight for at least a draw here and will be relentless in fighting to climb out of the La Liga cellar.
The Pick: Espanyol +0.5 (-110) .5u; (via BetOnline 6/14)
Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid (4pm EST 6/17)
Atletico opened with a tough game against Athletic Bilbao and played to a classic 1-1 draw. Osasuna played to the same exact result with Real Sociedad, but their draw was slightly less expected. Osasuna is sitting right in the middle of the table, in no man’s land, safe from relegation but a long way from a UEFA cup spot. Atletico have all the motivation here to get a win to help set the tone for the rest of their La Liga games.
Atletico needs a win here to help propel them into a UCL spot. To mitigate the slightest amount of juice, I will throw on the under 4.5 goals too. Atletico haven’t played a La Liga game that went over 4.5 goals yet, so there is no chance this one goes over, right? We probably get a late 1-0 winner or a 2-0 dominant win here from Atletico.
The Pick: Atletico Madrid & U4.5 (Even) .5u; (via Bovada 6/15)
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