Stealing Candy’s Free Super Bowl Prop Bets

By @TheCNDYMan

No Gatorade colors in this one…

Will there be a 2-point conversion attempt in the game? NO (-140)

  • Since 2010, there were nine total 2-point attempts in Super Bowls, and only five were successful.
  •  Since 2010, 2015 and last year are the lone years with no 2-point attempts.
  •  There were four 2-point attempts in the 2017 & 2018 Super Bowls, and two were successful. 
  •  The Chiefs only went for two 2-point attempts during the 2019 regular season (one successful). The 49ers went for two five times and succeeded three times. The league average was four.
  • The Chiefs and 49ers ranked 27th and 28th in 2-point attempts per game.

Don’t fall for this one at YES with +110–it’s not worth it. SImply put, these teams do not go for two. 

Total Number of Third Down Conversions by Both Teams Under 10.5 (-125)

  • Since 2016, only one super bowl has gone over 10.5 third down conversions. 
  • Kansas City (5.5) and San Francisco (5.4) both rank top-10 in third down conversions per game in 2019. 
  • Both teams rank 31st and 32nd for third down attempts in their last three games (SF-10 KC-9.3)

Big spread led my gut to think that this would go over 10.5. After looking at how these two are trending, this should be an easy under 10.5 8.5 seems like the more reasonable number here. These teams are successful on third down (above 44% success rate) but they don’t need third down(?). 

Team with more rushing yards San Francisco -49.5 vs Kansas City (+100)

  • On the year, San Francisco outrushed KC by 55 yards. 
  • Last three games, that number turned into 69 yards. 

If this game goes how Niners fans expect, this is a given. These odds are fair if KC’s offense doesn’t get anything going and it turns into a man-handling.

Chiefs Race To 25 Points (+120)

  • Chiefs combined for 86 points the last two weeks and KC scored over-30 seven of 16 regular season games. 

Let’s try hedging our above bet with a fair assumption if Kansas City takes care of business. The implied score of the Super Bowl is trending at 28-27. When trailing by 7 or more points, San Francisco becomes the slowest offense in the league (29.74 sec/play). If SF gets out to an early lead, this is a lock.