Mon. Oct 14th, 2019

Five Situational Schedule Spots to Look for this 2019 NFL Season

Russ Wilson


I have five situational schedule spots with a combined record of 79-14-2 against the spread (ATS) since 2015. These situational spots take advantage of how teams have to adjust mentally and physically through the season.

Before we dive into these trends, I want to make it clear that I do not recommend following these games blindly and eligible games may change throughout the season. Always be sure to do your research first before following anyone’s suggested bets. With that said, let’s get into it!

Situational Schedule Spot #1

Since 2015, in Divisional games, teams with a bye the following week are 15-3 ATS against teams who don’t have a bye the following week. 

Why it makes sense:

Seems like teams look to play more aggressively and go “all out” when they know they have extra rest to recover. 

Possible Opportunities:

  • Week 3 – New York Jets +10 @ New England Patriots
  • Week 11 – Cardinals +8.5 @ San Francisco 49ers

Situational Schedule Spot #2

Since 2015, away teams in division games on Sunday who’s following game is on Thursday and their opponent is not heading into a bye week are 9-0-1 ATS. 

Why it makes sense:

Teams have to adjust and game plan differently with short weeks. Focusing on defense and clock management will be key in these games.

Possible Opportunities:

  • Week 2 – Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 @ Houston Texans
  • Week 4 – Seattle Seahawks -5 @ Arizona Cardinals
  • Week 7 – Minnesota Vikings -1.5 @ Detroit Lions

Situational Schedule Spot #3

Since 2015, teams, who are dogs or are at PK, in a non-divisional game playing between two non-divisional games are 19-6, 76% ATS when facing a team playing between two divisional games.

Why it makes sense:

Playing between two key games, the favorites seem to be overlooking weaker, non-divisional teams or are playing down to their opponent’s and doing just enough to win.

Possible Opportunities:

  • Week 2 – Cleveland Brown PK @ New York Jets
  • Week 6 – Tennessee Titans +2.5 at Denver Broncos
  • Week 8 – Oakland Raiders +7 at Houston Texans
  • Week 14 – Dallas Cowboys +4 at Chicago Bears

Situational Schedule Spot #4

Since 2015, away teams in a divisional game, coming off a home game the previous week, facing a team coming off a monday night game the previous week are 15-3 ATS, 83.3% and also 5-13 on the under.

Why it makes sense:

This looks like a combination of more rest and their opponent coming off a primetime game going into a divisional game.

Possible Opportunities:

  • Week 2 – Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 @ Houston Texans 
  • Week 4 – Minnesota Vikings +3.5 @ Chicago Bears
  • Week 5 – Baltimore Ravens +3 @ Pittsburgh Steelers
  • Week 7 – Minnesota Vikings -1.5 @ Detroit Lions
  • Week 17 – Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings

Situational Schedule Spot #5

Since 2015, teams on the road, when favored or are dogs up to 5 points, off a one game homestand against teams coming off of at least two away games in the last two weeks, did not play on Monday night the previous week and their next game is a Division game are 21-2 ATS!

Why it makes sense:

We are betting on a team that is either better than or isn’t that much worse than the home team that has done a lot of traveling the last few weeks and head into a division game the following week.

Possible Opportunities:

  • Week 3 – Cincinnati Bengals +4 @ Buffalo Bills
  • Week 6 – Dallas Cowboys -2 @ New York Jets 
  • Week 6 – Philadelphia Eagles +2.5 @ Minnesota Vikings
  • Week 10 – Arizona Cardinals +4.5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 
  • Week 13 – Minnesota Vikings +3 @ Seattle Seahawks
  • Week 15 – Minnesota Vikings +3.5 @ San Diego Chargers
  • Week 15 – Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 @ Washington Redskins
  • Week 16 – Detroit Lions +4.5 @ Denver Broncos 
  • Week 16 – Cincinnati Bengals +1.5 @ Miami Dolphins
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