Last week picks from my article went 2-2 for +0.48 units. That half unit is thanks to betting the -0.25 on Leipzig, instead of the moneyline. I am going back to what I enjoy most this week, and that is betting on goals. I am still backing one side this week, but I am mostly picking out a few great spots to see some goals.
So far this season I am just treading water, but I will get my feet underneath me soon as we get into the meat of this season. This is the last game before the first international break and can lead to some tricky spots. I still feel just as confident about these fours bets as any other, if not more. The first few weeks are always tough and to not be fully submerged at this point is always a win. Let’s dive right into my four best bets from around Europe.
Sassuolo/Crotone (10/3 9:00am EST)
This is a team you can blindly bet overs and probably make a lot of money. This is especially true when you can get a total that’s under 3 with reasonable juice. I can’t say this is a completely blind bet as I could see Crotone contributing on the score line here. They did get shutout by AC Milan last game, but I’d imagine they could get at least one here. Sassuolo is a team that constantly plays on the front foot. They may even be able to get to this total all by themselves.
I was surprised to see some 2.75’s laying around on this game. I would have thought this would have been set at three goals on every book. At the worst here, I could see a half win. Sassuolo should win this game easily by two goals. And even if they go up in this game, they aren’t a team to take their foot off the gas. Taking the over all day on this one.
The Pick: O2.75 (-120) 1u; (via BetOnline 9/30)
Elche/Huesca (10/3 12:30pm EST)
Even though all of my bets could be considered my favorite, I think this is a great under the radar play heading into the weekend. There are a few things that line up here that make this bet interesting. To start, both of these teams are newly promoted to La Liga, and matching up against each other, I’d imagine they would play slightly more aggressive than normal. Instead of their normal conservative play style, both teams should try to go for all three points here.
Both of these teams played mid-week, and we will see some tired legs. This could hurt the offense but I think it will mostly hurt defense. I don’t mind anyone taking both teams to score here since I think both teams will go for it. With the total set here at two, I think at the very worst we will get a push. That is a nice safety net to have but I could easily see three goals in this game. Let’s hope we don’t see a classic La Liga nil-nil draw.
The Pick: O2 (-130) 1u; (via Bovada 9/30)
Southampton/West Brom (10/4 7:00am EST)
Both of these teams have had rather inconsistent starts to their season. Southampton opened with a disappointing loss to Crystal Palace, got walloped by Tottenham, and then eked out a 1-nil win against Burnley last week. For West Brom, they were crushed in their first two games against Leicester and Everton and then earned a less than fulfilling draw against Chelsea. They were up 3-0 after 27 minutes but allowed Chelsea back into the game to earn a point.
The one thing that has surprised me from West Brom is their dynamic attack. They have talented players going forward in Callum Robinson, Matheus Pereira, and Grady Diangana but boy oh boy are they lacking any sort of backline. For Southampton they have the talented marksman in Danny Ings and an underrated forward in Che Adams. Like West Brom, the Saints are a little exposed at the back and will be susceptible to West Brom’s improbable offense. Not only do I trust both offenses here to score, but I equally don’t trust their defenses to keep clean sheets. With the current price of -135, I think that number is too good to pass up.
The Pick: Both Teams to Score (-135) 1u; (via Bovada 9/30)
Wolfsburg/Augsburg (10/4 9:00am EST)
Augsburg find themselves in very unfamiliar territory, sitting in second after the first two match weeks. On the other side, Wolfsburg have not started as well as they hoped, currently sitting in thirteenth after two draws. I think we are getting a very generous price here with Wolfsburg as they go up against an Augsburg team who I believe have overperformed so far. They caught Dortmund asleep at the wheel and took advantage last week. And in their first game, they beat up on an average Union Berlin team. On the other side, Wolfsburg earned a good point against Leverkusen in their opening match but probably feel underwhelmed with their performance against Freiburg.
I think this is the week Wolfsburg put it together and get all three points here. They are coming off a loss to Athens this week in the Europa qualifiers, but that doesn’t faze me too much. They were able to rotate a little bit but these players shouldn’t be too worn down tis early in the season. Augsburg will come back to reality here after their huge win last week. This is a huge let down spot for them. It is also important to know Wolfsburg will have limited fans in attendance and they will be doing everything they can to urge their team onto the first victory of the season.
The Pick: Wolfsburg ML (Even) 1u; (via BetOnline 9/30)
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