By: Joe Brunk (@_JoeyB23)
I didn’t have an article last week but my picks on the AR Soccer Show went 2-1 for +1.4 units. Be sure to tune into all my content to make sure you can always check out my best bets. This will be a shorter article this week, but you can check out the AR Soccer Show this week for more of a breakdown on my plays. You can find it on Rex’s, Ajay’s or my twitter. You can also check out any other sports content anywhere on our website.
The domestic leagues are slowly coming to a close. I have two picks each for Serie A and the Premier League. The last match day for the Premier League will definitely have some fireworks and it will be must watch TV on Sunday morning. Serie A is a week behind but there is still a ton of value to find in both leagues.
Genoa vs Inter Milan (7/25 1:30pm EST)
Genoa is still in a tight relegation battle, holding a four-point lead over Lecce. Inter has a Champions League spot locked up but are in a tight race with Atalanta and Lazio for their positioning in second through fourth place. The results in the Serie A midweek games were wonky across the board, with a lot of teams losing and drawing who were desperate for points.
I think we get back to a chalky weekend with the favorites taking care of business, and this is also a big bounce back spot for Inter. The moneyline is too much juice for me to play at -165, but I will add in the over 1.5 goals to make it a more reasonable price.
The Pick: Inter Milan & O1.5 (-110) 1u; (via Bovada 7/23)
Burnley vs Brighton (7/26 11:00am EST)
This is one of those games in the Premier League that means nothing in the grand scheme of relegation and European tournament spots. Brighton are just happy to have another year in the Premier League, but I think we will see a motivated Burnley here to end the season. There are rumors over Sam Dyche leaving Burnley at the end of the year, and I think the players will give everything in his potential last game. Burnley could finish as high as 8th place with a win here and could also hold onto their position above Arsenal. At this price, I think there is a lot of value backing the better team who I think will be more motivated headed into the final day.
The Pick: Burnley (+130) 1u; (via Bovada 7/23)
Everton vs Bournemouth (7/26 11:00am EST)
This is my favorite bet of the weekend, and if you pick one to tail, it should be this one. Bournemouth are obviously desperate to get all three points here, and also need help in two other games on Sunday to have any chance to get out of the relegation zone. As much as Bournemouth need three points, they need to make up the goal difference between them and Aston Villa and Watford. I doubt Bournemouth can win this game, but they will be on the front foot from the start. I am confident both teams find the back of the net here. Everton have the pieces to be deadly on the counterattack in this one and would expect one of the teams to get on the scoresheet twice.
The Pick: BTTS & O2.5 (-105) 1u; (via Bovada 7/23)
Cagliari vs Udinese (7/26 11:00am EST)
This last bet for Serie A was a hard one to find. I normally find a lot of success betting in Italy, but these last few game weeks have been hard ones to cap. So many inconsistent teams and the goals seemed to have dried up with the hot weather and tired legs. This bet was not really on my radar until we saw Udinese scratch a last-minute winner against Juventus. Coming off that high, they may be set up for a letdown spot here. Cagliari are a dominant home team on their island. In their four games since the restart, they’ve only lost to Atalanta 1-0 in a hard-fought game. They drew Sassuolo and Lecce in their last two home games and took it to Torino back in June. Either way, I see a lot of value backing Cagliari not to lose at home.
The Pick: Cagliari DDC/+0.5 (-119) 1u; (via BetOnline 7/24)
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