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It’s been a while since I posted any plays on the Twittersphere or in written form. I had to come back to the states so I could visit family during the holidays. I’ve returned to my backpacking trip through Europe and made my stop in my ancestral homeland of France where I try to find some good plays to help keep this trip funded. Last time out I went 2-2 and lost .1U in Germany before I went back to the states. Let’s get that back so we can travel to our next country.
Metz (+148) vs Nice (+188) O/U 2.5
The first stop on our Saturday tour of Ligue 1 features some real stinkers. Metz sits 11th in the table while Nice is right behind them in 13th. Both teams have stunk worse than a Parisian sewer in their last 10 matches. Metz has managed a goal differential of zero in their last ten matches. They’ve netted 10 goals against their opponents while giving up 10. Nice hasn’t been any better as they’ve scored 11 goals and allowed 15 goals. Both teams have also only scored in the first half twice in each in their last five matches and both of those were just one goal apiece. Not only are these two teams bad on both sides of the ball, both teams are depleted with injuries. Metz is without six players with one doubtful while Nice is down three with injury, two doubtful, and one out due to a red card. I’m putting a small wager that these two teams will stink and not be able to do much against each other. I’m riding with a first half under .5 at +163 and the full total to be under 1.75 at +163. The draw is also a strong play at +220.
Bordeaux (+105) vs Lorient (+265) O/U 2.5
Our next match features a mid-table team playing host to a relegation bound squad. This is another match that should be a low scoring affair. Bordeaux hasn’t been tearing up the scoreboard with six goals scored in their last five matches. Of course, Lorient hasn’t been much better with their seven goals in the same time frame. Lorient is coming off a thrashing against Monaco where they lost 5-2 and will be looking for a result in this match. I think Bordeaux is the better squad, but Lorient can have hope with Bordeaux’s Ben Arfa out due to injury. With the stunted attack from Bordeaux and Lorient being bad all around, I’m going with the under 2 at +138. Both teams aren’t the greatest with the ball as Bordeaux averages only one goal per match. On the other hand, Lorient is bad on the defensive side of the ball. Coming into this match, they have allowed a whopping 36 goals, so be a bit leery on that under. With Bordeaux lacking in the attack and Lorient still mostly at full strength I’m confident that this match will end 1-0.
I’m choosing to go small on this week’s picks as I don’t follow Ligue 1 as much as Premier League or Serie A, and when I do bet on France’s top flight league it tends to go the opposite direction. All plays this week are at a half unit. Please bet responsibly and make sure you follow me and the BRKDWN on Twitter for all of your soccer and sport needs.
Euro Trip Recap:
Overall 6-2-1 +2.4U
EPL 3-1 +2.5U
Serie A 1-1-1 +/- 0U
Bundesliga 2-2 -.1U
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