Early Week Value: My Favorite Week 10 NFL Pick

By: Joey Koenig (@joeyk_17)

Reading and predicting the lines is an important aspect of long-term profitability in sports betting. There’s a time to jump on closing line value, a time to fade the public, a time to make the “square” play, etc.

Today, I’m going to examine a play that I believe offers opening line value. While I understand many casual bettors don’t like having their money “tied up” for several days before a play settles, grabbing a line at better odds than what it’ll be at game time can prove to be the difference between long-term winning and losing, and we all like to win money, right?

Here is my favorite early Week 10 play as the line currently stands.

Seahawks ML (+110) vs. Rams

One of my favorite things to do when I bet football is buy low on a team coming off a bad performance.

We didn’t learn anything new about the Seahawks in Week 9. We already knew their passing defense is dreadful, and we already knew Russell Wilson has to be near perfect for Seattle to win.

The Seattle defense allows an astounding 362.1 passing yards per game, which is 52 yards more than the next worst team. Earlier this season, Wilson threw five touchdowns in consecutive weeks against the Cowboys and Patriots, but the defense allowed a combined 869 passing yards to Cam Newton and Dak Prescott. The Seahawks won both games on the final play.

The good news for Seattle is that, most weeks, Wilson is nearly perfect. He has at least three touchdowns in all but one game this season, and the Seahawks are 6-0 in games where he threw one or fewer interceptions.

Los Angeles’ defense has forced multiple interceptions twice this season. However, those games were against Nick Foles and the turnover king himself, Carson Wentz.

The Rams have allowed the fewest yards per pass attempt this season, but that tends to happen when half of your games have been against the worst division in NFL history, the NFC East. Jimmy Garoppolo and Josh Allen combined for seven touchdowns and one interception and posted QBRs of more than 88 against the LA secondary.

When the player prop lines open up for the week, I also plan on playing Russell Wilson over 2.5 touchdown passes at anything better than -120.

The bottom line is that the Rams are 1-2 against non-NFC East teams and are coming off of an embarrassing performance against the Miami Dolphins in Week 8. I’m not sold on them being legitimate contenders in a good NFC West division as their schedule toughens up down the stretch. To me, Seattle is the better team, and there are no fans allowed in SoFi Stadium, all but eliminating any home field advantage Los Angeles may have.

I believe both the sharps and the public will dissect this line the same way, and Seattle will be the favorite by kickoff on Sunday afternoon. Grab this line at positive odds while you still can.

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