BRKDWN’s Covering The Bases Weekly Betting Guide

Brendan "Seven Costanza" Welshoff
Head of MLB/Podcast Host

By: Thomas Isbister (@IsbisterTom) & Will Rosenblatt (@rozenwill) & Seven (@Real7Costanza)

Welcome to theBRKDWN’s weekly betting guide. Here you can find the matchups for each weekend series, as well as betting advice based on finding value plays compared to the market odds. 

Every Friday you can come back for that weekend’s matchups and betting advice.

All lines are provided by Bet365.


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Last Week: 2-2

Dodgers (-225) vs Rockies, Loss

Cardinals (-105) vs Reds, Win

Blue Jays (+155) vs Yankees, Win

Twins (-115) vs Brewers, Loss

Weekend Matchups

Nationals @ DodgersPhillies @ BravesMariners @ Twins
Yankees @ RaysPadres @ RangersRoyals @ White Sox
Rockies @ GiantsAthletics @ AstrosBrewers @ Cardinals
Angels @ Blue JaysReds @ DBacksCubs @ Pirates
Tigers @ IndiansMarlins @ MetsRed Sox @ Orioles

Lock of the Week

Padres @ Rangers

It should be fairly evident why this is the lock of the week. The Rangers certainly offer a sneaky upside play if you’re desperate to cash in on some high odds due to their home-field advantage. However, aside from the Dodgers, the Padres offer the best pitching and lineup in the game. Even with Tatis’ shoulder injury keeping him out for the foreseeable future, it’s tough to bet against these guys. The standalone value will be poor here, but you could grow a pair, parlay the Padres with another team or two, and win big. There’s not much to scare you from confidently throwing some cash at a whale’s vagina. I like taking San Diego ML, Yankees ML, and Dodgers RL as a potential lock. Don’t listen to me though, I only hit on my first parlay on opening week. – Seven @Real7Costanza

Betting Advice

Nationals @ Dodgers (Friday Night)

We’ll probably say this a lot, but it’s a good weekend to bet on the Dodgers. The Nationals are still trying to rev things up after dealing with COVID issues. The Dodgers will be fired up to play in front of their home crowd for the first time since 2019 on the same day they get their “big fat rings” and will have Walker Buehler throwing to kick the series off. The Nationals will start Joe Ross, who since 2018, has an ERA above 5.00. For a regular-season game in April, this is about as close to a lock as you’ll get. – Will

Reds @ Diamondbacks (Friday Night)

The Reds are scorched earth hot right now. They lead the league in runs with 57, which are 12 more than second-place Houston. Cincinnati will travel to Arizona to face a Diamondbacks pitching staff that ranks 25th in ERA. Arizona’s Friday starter, Taylor Widener, was actually pretty good in his lone start vs the Padres. He went six innings without allowing an earned run. The Statcast numbers weren’t as pretty, and I’d be surprised if he does that again. The Reds will cool off at some point, but until then, they’re a solid play. The over is worth a look in this entire series as well. – Will

Royals @ White Sox

I cannot promise you quality baseball with this one, but I can promise you fun. The White Sox and Royals have both been top-five offenses thus far and neither team has proven they can consistently get outs. I’d look to play the over in this series. – Will

Yankees @ Rays (Friday Night)

The first matchup since last year’s ALDS should provide some great entertainment. Both teams are coming into this series having had two completely different experiences the series prior. The Yankees beat up on the Orioles, while Tampa Bay struggled against the Red Sox. Luckily for the Rays, they will not have to face Gerrit Cole at any point. However, that shouldn’t matter, as the Yankees are coming into Tropicana Field hot and starting off with Kluber on the mound.

Angels @ Blue Jays (Saturday Night)

This will be the home opening weekend for the Blue Jays and their new home in Dunedin, Florida. This series lines up to be a lock for the over in every game. Two potent offenses who love to swing are going up against the back-half of each team’s rotation. If that wasn’t enough to convince you that it will be a high offense series, TD Ballpark is very hitter-friendly. It has a shallow right field, and the warm wind comes from behind the batter, helping balls fly. Take the over in every chance you get. As for the pick itself, Toronto only looks enticing for game three of four with Matz on the mound. The Angels look good for the other games on Friday and Sunday. – @IsbisterTom

Athletics @ Astros (Saturday Afternoon)

Two teams that are heading in completely different directions. Heading into Houston for the weekend, the Athletics look lost at 1-6, most of which is due to them getting dummied at home by the hands of the Astros last week. Houston is in good hands with Urquidy on the mound for Saturday. If you want to double down, McCullers Jr is going on Friday night as well. Whichever game you bet, having money on the Astros this weekend should feel like a safe bet. – @IsbisterTom

Phillies @ Braves (Friday Night)

Zack Wheeler will face off against Charlie Morton in the series opener. Wheeler shut the Braves down less than a week ago with one of the best pitching performances we’ve seen so far this year. Morton wasn’t as good in his start when these teams met, but he still managed to go five innings while missing some bats. Morton showed improved velocity on his fastball as well as some added movement to his curveball and sinker. A second straight shutout from Zack Wheeler is unlikely, and Morton should give the Braves enough to allow their offense a chance to win in their home opener. Will

And If you’re feeling dangerous…

If you’re feeling like you want to take a risk and play an underdog this weekend, go ahead and roll the dice on the Rockies as they face off against the Giants on Saturday. The Rockies have hit well their last few games and have had the better bullpen so far. Why not give it a try? – Will

Sunday Night Special

Phillies @ Braves

The Braves have looked BAD and the Phillies look amazing. It’s only been one week, however, so let’s take a deep breath and remember the Braves are still likely to finish better in the end. Having said that, the Phillies matchup better for primetime this weekend with Matt Moore facing off against Drew Smyly. Don’t let the ERA fool you, Drew Smyly is a poor man’s James Paxton and that sentence alone should scare you. Moore isn’t exactly Sandy Koufax, but his team will score a lot of runs against a mediocre pitcher like Smyly. I like the Phillies in this game as well as the over, assuming it comes in at less than double digits. – Seven @Real7Costanza

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