Covering The Bases Weekly Betting Guide

Welcome to theBRKDWN’s weekly MLB betting guide. Here, you can find the matchups for each weekend series, as well as betting advice based on finding value plays compared to the market odds. Every Friday, you can come back for that weekend’s matchups and betting advice.

All lines are provided by Bet365.


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Last Week: 6-3, Season 8-5

Padres @ Rangers, Win

Dodgers @ Nationals, Win

Reds @ Diamondbacks, Win

Over, Royals @ White Sox, Loss

Yankees vs Rays, Loss

Blue Jays vs Angels, Win

Astros vs Athletics, Loss

Braves vs Phillies, Win

Phillies @ Braves, Win

Weekend Matchups

Braves @ CubsGiants @ MarlinsMets @ Rockies
Cardinals @ PhilliesWhite Sox @ Red SoxTwins @ Angels
Diamondbacks @ NationalsOrioles @ RangersTigers @ Athletics
Rays @ YankeesPirates @ BrewersDodgers @ Padres
Indians @ RedsBlue Jays @ RoyalsAstros @ Mariners

Betting Advice

Twins @ Angels

This has the potential to be a lot of fun. Okay, maybe it’s not Dodgers/Padres, but we still get two of the better teams in the AL plus Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. The Angels are the favorite on Friday with Andrew Heaney taking the mound, sitting around –130 at most books.

The value here might be with the Twins. Heaney hasn’t been as poor as his 6.00 ERA would suggest, but he hasn’t thrown great. He’ll get guys to chase, but the walk rate won’t ease anyone’s nerves. The Twins offense has cooled off a bit, but they hit the ball well vs Boston on Thursday. Left-hander Lewis Thorpe is making his season debut for the Twins on Friday. Minnesota liked what they saw from Thorpe in the spring with an improved fastball and the Angels have struggled against lefties this year. I’d play the Twins as an underdog here.

Braves @ Cubs (Saturday)

The Cubs’ offense has been bad. I mean really, really bad. They are dead last in the MLB in scoring and wOBA. Their xBA is below the Mendoza line. They have just two qualified hitters with an OPS over .700 (Kris Bryant and Willson Contreras). Trevor Williams will take the mound for Chicago on Saturday vs Huascar Ynoa for the Braves. Williams hasn’t had a year, with a sub 5.00 ERA since 2018. The Braves offense is 5th in slugging and leads the majors in exit velocity. Ynoa has been Atlanta’s most consistent starter thus far, preventing runs with a solid K/BB rate. The Braves line will likely be around –115 for this game. I am banking on an Atlanta win and like the value there.

Blue Jays @ Royals (Friday)

Coming off a 7-5 loss on Thursday, The Jays were able to get their bats on track toward the end of the game, almost making a comeback from down 7 runs. Last weekend, Matz was the only starter to win against the Angels, and he looked dominant. The Royals are on a hot streak, Mike Minor is starting today, who managed one win in two games and has a 4.50ERA and 1.30WHIP. The Jays bats should be able to continue their momentum from last night and break out offensively. The value of -115 for Toronto seems really good.

Dodgers (-1.5) @ Padres (Friday)

Betting on the Dodgers can be a wild ride. So why not go with them winning by two runs? Plain and simple, I trust Buehler more than I do Weathers. The injuries that the Padres have accrued over the last little bit put them at a significant disadvantage against the powerhouse Dodgers. +110 odds of the Dodgers winning by two is a better bet than them winning outright with -150, sit back and enjoy this wild ride, and what should be a fantastic game.

Sunday Night Special

Braves @ Cubs

Only Kyle Hendricks has been announced for Sunday’s game which makes this hard to predict. Following what was said previously about this series, the Braves should make an easy case to walk into Wrigley and come out on top. The Cubs offense has been horrible and it’s more likely that this is the Cubs team we should expect for the season, rather than expecting the Braves to be this bad the rest of the way. This could be a turnaround series for them and look to be the better bet.

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