Breaking Down the Bases: Wed, 7/17

All plays posted will be standard plays that can be placed anywhere: full game sides, totals, and F5 sides, totals.

Washington Nationals @ Baltimore Orioles

Opening Line: Nationals ML -168, Total 11
Current Line: Nationals ML -185, Total 11

Youcapper’s Bet: Nationals RL -135

2019 Supporting Trends:

Washington Nationals:

  • 10-4 on the run line in away games when the line is less than -150.

Baltimore Orioles:

  • 7-26 on the run line at home when the total is set at 9.5 or higher.

Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Indians

Opening Line: Indians ML -250, Total 9.5
Current Line: Indians ML -265, Total 9.0

Youcapper’s Bet: Indians RL -140

2019 Supporting Trends:

Detroit Tigers:

  • 0-3 on the run line against the Cleveland Indians when Spencer Turnbull starts.

Cleveland Indians:

  • 7-2 on the run line at home against a team with a record less than .430 and the opposing starter is coming off a previous matchup non-quality start.

Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox


Opening Line: Red Sox ML -265, Total 11
Current Line: Red Sox ML -245, Total 11

Youcapper’s Bet: Red Sox RL -135, O11 -105

2019 Supporting Trends:

Toronto Blue Jays:

  • 0-6 on the run line and 4-2 to the over when Aaron Sanchez starts and the line is greater than +165.

Boston Red Sox:

  • 5-2 on the run line and 5-1-1 to the over as home favorites when Eduardo Rodriguez starts.
  • 8-3 on the run line and 10-0-1 to the over against opponents with a record less than .550 when Eduardo Rodriquez starts.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Texas Rangers


Opening Line: Diamondbacks ML -115, Total 10.5

Current Line: Diamondbacks ML -121, Total 10.5

Youcapper’s Bet: Rangers ML +110

2019 Supporting Trends:

Arizona Diamondbacks:

  • 0-3 as small away favorites (greater than -135) against a pitcher coming off a previous matchup non-quality start.

Texas Rangers:

  • 17-4 at home when the opposing starter is coming off a previous matchup non-quality start.
  • 2-0 at home when Jesse Chavez starts.

Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees


Opening Line: Yankees ML -155, Total 9.5
Current Line: Yankees ML -152, Total 10

TheRecDegen’s Bet: Under 10 -105

Today’s matchup features Yonny Chirinos for the Rays and Domingo German for the Yankees. This could turn into quite the pitcher’s matchup between these two. German sports a K/9 rate of 9.68, while Chirinos is no slouch either with a 7.82 K/9 rate. Both pitchers also have pretty decent strand and ground ball rates as well. 

The highlight of this matchup is that both pitchers have an xFIP under 3.90. Chirinos (3.77) and German (3.83).

There are also trends to support the under today as well:

  • The Rays on the road are 1-5-0 OU when Chirinos starts.
  • The Yankees at home are 0-5-0 OU when German starts.

Records:

@you_capper: 10-6, +3.28 units

@TheRecDegen: 5-5-1, -0.03 units

@GordonVonDenim: 0-3, -3 units (All GVD plays are risk 1u)

Mutual Plays: 0-1, -1.13 units

Leave a Reply

Instagram did not return a 200.

Follow this blog

Get every new post delivered right to your inbox.