Sat. Jan 18th, 2020

Breaking Down the Bases: Thurs, 7/18

All plays are 1 unit unless otherwise stated.

All plays posted will be standard plays that can be placed anywhere: full game sides, totals, and F5 sides, totals.

Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees (Game 1)

Opening Line: Yankees ML -155, Total 9.5
Current Line: Yankees ML -151, Total 9.5

TheRecDegen’s Bet: Total F5 Under 5.5 -115

We have a doubleheader of Rays vs Yankees baseball! Today’s first matchup was supposed to be yesterday’s matchup and features Yonny Chirinos for the Rays and Domingo German for the Yankees. I believe this is going to be a pitcher’s duel right from the beginning. German sports a K/9 rate of 9.68, while Chirinos is no slouch either with a 7.82 K/9 rate. Both pitchers also have pretty decent strand and ground ball rates as well. 

As mentioned in yesterday’s write-up (which if you read it, you’ve probably noticed I’m reusing the majority of), The highlight of this matchup is that both pitchers have an xFIP under 3.90. Chirinos (3.77) and German (3.83).

The full game total dropped down to 9.5, so instead of taking the half run less at the same vig price with the uncertainties around bullpen pitching, I’m opting for the total on the 1st five innings. Chirinos has averaged 1.67 runs allowed in the 1st five, while German has averaged 1.5 runs allowed in the 1st five. Run support for both pitchers lays at 2.67 and 3.17 respectively. Put them all together and we’re likely to see a total of 3-5 runs scored for the 1st five innings.

St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds

Opening Line: Reds ML -121, Total 9.5
Current Line: Reds ML -118, Total 10

Youcapper’s Bet: Cardinals ML +108, U10 -105

2019 Supporting Trends:

St Louis Cardinals:

  • 5-0 straight up and 3-1-1 to the under in away games when Dakota Hudson starts and the line is less than or equal to +110

Cincinnati Reds:

  • 0-3 straight up and 3-0 on the under in home games when Tanner Roark starts and the opposing starter is coming off a previous matchup quality start


@you_capper: 11-10, -0.47 units

@TheRecDegen: 5-5-1, -0.03 units

@GordonVonDenim: 0-3, -3 units (All GVD Plays are risking 1 unit)

Mutual Plays: 0-1, -1.13 units

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