Breaking Down the Bases: Saturday, July 20

All plays are 1 unit unless otherwise stated.
All plays posted will be standard plays that can be placed anywhere: full game sides, totals, and F5 sides, totals.

Grand Salami

Current Line: Home ML -260, Total 156.5

TheRecDegen’s Bet: Totals Over 156.5 -110

My projection and forecast model is giving me a range of 161-171 runs for today. The confidence rating is at 88.01%.

San Diego Padres @ Chicago Cubs

Opening Line: Cubs ML -123, 11.5
Current Line: Cubs ML -144, 11.5

Youcapper’s Bet: Cubs ML -144

2019 Supporting Trends:

San Diego Padres:

  • 2-8 in away games when the opposing starter is left handed 

Chicago Cubs:

  • 4-1 at home against a starter coming off a previous matchup non quality start and they won their last game by exactly one run

Oakland Athletics @ Minnesota Twins

Opening Line: Twins ML -130, 10
Current Line: Twins ML  -136, 10

Youcapper’s Bet: Athletics ML +126

2019 Supporting Trends:

Oakland Athletics:

  • 4-0 in away games coming off a win when Brett Anderson starts and the opposing starter is coming off a previous matchup non quality start

Minnesota Twins:

  • 0-4 at home when the opposing starter is left handed and the line is less than or equal to -125

Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves

Opening Line: Braves ML -152, 10
Current Line: Braves ML -155, 10

Youcapper’s Bet: Nationals ML +145

2019 Supporting Trends:

Washington Nationals:

  • 9-2 off a previous matchup loss and the opposing pitcher is coming off a previous matchup non quality start

Atlanta Braves:

  • 1-4 in home games off a previous matchup win by exactly one point and the opposing starter has an ERA less than 4.00

Records:
@you_capper: 13-10, 1.14 units*
@TheRecDegen: 5-5-1, -0.05 units* * I just realized the mutual plays were getting double-counted into my record as well. This is the correct record with the mutual plays removed.
Mutual Plays: 0-2, -2.38 units

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