Mon. Oct 14th, 2019

Breaking Down the Bases: 7/12

All plays are 1 unit unless otherwise stated.

Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees

Opening Line: Yankees ML -275, 11
Current Line: Yankees ML -270, 11

Youcapper’s bet: Over 11 +105

  • Blue Jays are 5-1 to the over in away games with a total of 9 or more when Aaron Sanchez starts
  • Blue Jays are 4-0 to the over in away games when Aaron Sanchez starts and the opponent’s run line is less than or equal to +100
  • Yankees are 6-1-1 to the over when the total is greater or equal to 10 and the opposing pitcher is coming off a previous matchup non-quality start

Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles

Opening Line: Rays ML -147, 9.5
Current Line:
Rays ML -144, 9.5

Youcapper’s bet: Rays ML -144, Over 9.5 +100

  • Rays are 5-0-1 to the over and 5-1 straight up when facing a team with at most a .325 record, the totals greater than or equal to 8.5, and is favored by at least -140
  • Orioles are 14-1-2 to the over and 2-15 straight up at home when the total is at least 9.5, the opposing starter has an ERA less than or equal to 5.00, and the opponents run line is no greater than +120.
  • Orioles are 0-6 at home against teams with a record no greater than .600 when Dylan Bundy Starts

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Boston Red Sox

Opening Line: Red Sox ML -107, 10.5
Current Line:
Red Sox ML -113, 10.5

TheRecDegen’s bet: Red Sox ML -113, Over 10.5 -110

2019 Supporting Trends:

Dodgers:

  • Dodgers are 3-6 SU and 6-3-0 OU this season when Maeda starts on the road.

Red Sox:

  • Red Sox are 6-2 SU and 6-1-1 OU this season when Rodriguez starts at home.
  • Red Sox are 15-2-1 OU overall this season when Rodriguez is the starter.

MLB Grand Salami

Current Line: 150.5

TheRecDegen’s bet: Over 150.5 -105

  • My projection and forecast model is giving me a range of 157-167 runs today.

BDTB Record:

@you_capper: 0-0, 0u

@TheRecDegen: 2-0, +2.25 units

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